CORTLAND, N.Y. -- The tabloid-ready Mark Sanchez-Tim Tebow quarterback drama that everyone wants to make the New York Jets 2012 season all about misses the
point. Or at least half the point.
Tebow isn't a Jet because New York coveted his passing arm. When the Jets choose to throw this season, Sanchez will deliver it the vast majority of the time.
That much is all but certain. But it's New York renewed commitment to the running game, a re-emphasizing of its once-vaunted Ground and Pound attack, that
will be the real story of the season in Rex-ville. And how that goes will determine just how much Tebow's role cuts into Sanchez's playing time and whether
there will be a quarterback controversy at some point.
After all, it wasn't Tebow's left arm that so memorably beat the stunned Jets 17-13 with a late 95-yard touchdown drive on a Thursday night in Week 11 last
season in Denver. As you'll recall, that victory seemed to ramp up Tebow-mania to a new level of frenzy, and it was what Tebow did with his legs that fully
got the attention and admiration of Jets head coach Rex Ryan. Tebow had seven carries for 58 yards during the game-winning drive, none bigger than the 20-
yard touchdown burst around left end with 58 seconds remaining, when he ripped through a Jets defense that seemed to want no part of a 250-pound runner on
that pivotal 3rd-and-4 play.
I'm convinced that play, that touchdown, that galling New York loss, went a long ways toward making Tebow a Jet today. The Broncos improved to 5-5 that night
and eventually went to the playoffs with Tebow leading the way. The Jets dropped to 5-5 with the loss and eventually missed the playoffs for the first time
in Ryan's three seasons on the job, as their locker room dissolved into dysfunction and their offense lost a good bit of its winning, run-first identity of
2009-10.
"The fact that he beat us and we couldn't defend him, absolutely, that certainly didn't hurt the equation,'' Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum told me the
other day, discussing the team's decision-making in the Tebow acquisition. "When the quarterback is a threat as a runner, it's hard to defend. It was a
philosophical decision. We want to be a tough team, and be able to be game-plan specific with what Tim does best. It was like adding another club to our bag
at a reasonable price. It doesn't mean we always have to use that club, but it's there.''
It's there all right, and how it's used this season is going to receive a bit of scrutiny. Down to a microscopic level. But focusing solely on the Sanchez-
Tebow dynamic overlooks the Jets' really big move of the offseason, the hiring of new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano.
The ex-Dolphins head coach was quickly snapped up by Ryan in an attempt to reclaim the type of hard-nosed approach to the running game that helped New York
lead the NFL in rushing in 2009 and finish fourth overall in 2010 -- results that coincided with the Jets reaching the AFC title game both years. Last year,
under since-departed offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, New York's muddled approach produced a running game that averaged just 3.8 yards per carry
(tied for 29th), and only 105.8 yards per game (22nd).
Ryan still doesn't know exactly how his 2011 Jets lost the offensive identity he talked so long and loudly about his first two seasons, but he knows they
did. And he's determined to make that a one-year trend, with Sparano's top priority being a restoration of the Jets running game as the foundation of the
offense.
"I think we did lose it,'' Ryan said. "Whether it was because we were behind, or what it was, I'm not sure. But that's something that clearly jumped out
about last season. We struggled in the preseason running the ball and we struggled early in the season. We finally got it going a little bit as the year went
on, but clearly for our team, the best thing for it is to run the football. Or to at least have the ability to run, so that teams know you'd better be
careful against us. You'd better defend the run, because if you don't, we will run it. We have to be able to impose our will on defenses with our running
game. We have to be able to run the football even when they know we're going to run it. That's when you know you have an excellent football team.''
The Jets, Tannenbaum said, made poor decisions last year in terms of how to best utilize their offensive personnel. This is the modern-day NFL. You have to
be able to pass, and pass effectively, to win big. But the Jets convinced themselves that aging receivers Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason had to have major
roles in their offense, and that drew focus and carries away from running backs Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight. With disappointing
results.
"We initially went into the season thinking with Derrick Mason and Plaxico that our best personnel was one back, one tight end and three receivers,''
Tannenbaum said. "Over the course of the season we did evolve back to the running game, but at the beginning we kind of felt our best personnel was going in
a different direction. In hindsight it wasn't the right decision.''
At a recent Jets training camp practice I attended, it was Sparano's distinctive bellowing voice that dominated the proceedings on the field. Barking
instruction, encouragement or criticism, Sparano has everyone's attention at all times. His task is to re-establish the Jets' tough-guy persona, and the ex-
Cowboys offensive line coach has enthusiastically thrown himself into the renovation project.
"I understand why Rex hired me and what he's looking for,'' Sparano said. "What we're trying to do here is get a physicality, and a mentality that when
people watch us, it's not a case of What are they? They're going to have a pretty clear idea of what we are. A big part of winning in this league is taking
care of the football and being able to run the football, particularly in our division, in weather.
"I wasn't here in the past and I'm not really concerned about that part of it. But everything we do, it starts with physicality in the running game. What we
want is when people play the New York Jets, they line up against our offense and know it's going to be a physical football game.''
If you don't think Tebow will factor significantly into that return to a style of physicality in the Jets running game, you either haven't been paying
attention or you were in a coma and missed all of last season. The threat he poses with his legs and his ability to muscle his way through tacklers is one of
the primary reasons New York was interested in his unique and controversial skill package.
And of course, Sparano brings the Wildcat offensive formation that he helped make an NFL sensation back in 2008, when he led the Dolphins to a surprise AFC
East title in part by utilizing running back Ronnie Brown in that direct-snap quarterback role. The Jets used receiver Brad Smith effectively in the Wildcat
in 2009-10, but he signed with AFC East foe Buffalo in 2011, indirectly opening the door for Tebow this year.
Tebow will get plenty of work in the Wildcat in New York, as well as the read-option formation he thrived in (sporadically) last year in Denver. Earlier
indications are that he will be featured in red zone situations mostly, but given his success at times in Denver throwing deep patterns (Tebow had three
passes of at least 40 yards in one quarter of the Broncos' wild-card round upset over the Steelers, one more such throw than Sanchez completed all season), I
wouldn't be surprised to see him challenging a defense vertically on play-action calls. Second-round receiver Stephen Hill of Georgia Tech is a speed threat
who will be asked to stretch the field as a rookie.
"When we made the [Tebow] decision, obviously I talked to [Jets owner] Woody [Johnson],'' Tannenbaum said. "But it was Tony Sparano, Rex and myself in the
room. It was a football decision. Coach Sparano had coached him in the Senior Bowl and obviously ran a Wildcat with success in Miami, and Rex from the day he
walked in the door as a head coach, with his defensive acumen, always referred to it as 11-man football, where the quarterback is a threat as a runner. So
from a football standpoint, I'm looking to my left and I'm looking to my right and for really different reasons, they weren't scared of him.
"For a guy who has three years left on a contract, and may have been the best college football player of all time, we just felt the price of the trade was
reasonable and bringing Tim in here could really help our offense.''
The Tebow factor aside, Sparano's main focus in the running game will be coaxing a career year out of Jets lead running back Greene, who despite being
productive last season (1,054 yards, 4.2-yard average carry) didn't seem to be able to churn out the big yards at the biggest moments, or take over late in
games the way he did during his rookie season of 2009. Greene, who is entering the fourth and final year of his first Jets contract, will have the
opportunity under Sparano to prove he's New York's present and future at running back.
Ryan said he didn't think the Jets did a good job of blocking downfield for Greene last season, citing the departure of receiver Braylon Edwards as a
contributing factor to that decline. "Braylon was a big part in the way we blocked down field,'' Ryan said. "We actually would motion Braylon in and run
behind him, like a tight end. I think you're going to see us get back to that. That's a New York Jet thing. That commitment to blocking downfield. That's
going to help Shonn.''
But Sparano makes it sound as if re-energizing Greene's game will be as easy as giving him the ball. Early, often, and religiously. According to Sparano,
Greene just needs more work, and he defends his 2011 season by pointing out that Greene averaged 79.1 yards in the season's final 12 games, which Sparano
said ranked fourth in the league over that span.
"This guy is a big physical back, and he's built the way I like them, a low-to-the-ground, move-the-pile guy,'' Sparano said. "With Shonn, I have a feeling
this guy gets lathered up the more times he touches the ball. He carried the ball a lot in college [at Iowa]. That's the type of back he is. The most
important thing I try to talk to him about, because of the way we want to use him, is to make sure you take care of your body. It's a long season, and we're
going to use you. That's how we get his game to the next level.''
All of which is music to Greene's ears, with his next contract just around the corner. And the Jets offensive line, which includes the likes of Pro Bowl
selections Nick Mangold at center, D'Brickashaw Ferguson at tackle and Brandon Moore at guard, likes the renewed run-first mentality, too. What offensive
linemen doesn't love to run block, moving forward instead of backward in pass protection?
"We're a team with a great defense, a physical defense, and a physical-minded coach,'' Moore said. "You want to be able to run the football, and we have the
personnel to do that. But saying you're going to Ground and Pound and run the ball doesn't mean you're not going to throw the football. We'll throw it
plenty. But to get our identity back of being a physical, tough-minded team, a team with attitude, you've got to be able to run the ball. It's a welcomed
change around here. You don't feel tough or play like a tough team if you're slinging the ball all over the place.''
With Tomlinson retired after two seasons in New York, the Jets will ask Joe McKnight to add to his kickoff return duties, filling the speed-back role and
posing a receiving threat out of the backfield. And young runners like second-year veteran Bilal Powell and rookie Terrance Ganaway may contribute in
complementary roles. It's up to Sparano to find ways to employ them all, giving opposing defenses a host of different looks and packages to contend with in
stopping New York's running game.
If the plan holds this season, nobody will be used more creatively than Tebow, New York's high-profile backup quarterback, punt protector and X-factor
extraordinaire. But my guess is we'll be talking about his running a lot more than his passing in 2012, and the same might go for the entire Jets offense
this year. There seems to be no daylight between Ryan's and Sparano's mentality on the direction New York is headed.
"It's funny, but when we were researching our options at offensive coordinator, Rex and I spoke to Anthony Lynn, our running backs coach, who had been with
Tony in Dallas,'' Tannenbaum said. "I said, 'Anthony, in 30 seconds or less, what is Tony Sparano?' He said 'He's Rex Ryan on offense.' And that could not be
more accurate. He's tough, he's demanding, he's funny and he's fair.
"Of all the things we did this offseason, I think as much as anything, Tony is going to make a huge difference. Not just on our offense, but our football
team, because he sees the game from the eyes of a head coach.''
So it's time to Ground and Pound again in New York. Even if Tebow Time and the back-page circus has arrived, for Mark Sanchez, it's the Jets' recommitment to
their running game -- and not his celebrated new teammate -- that might wind up being his best friend.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
End of 007? Bond takes a bullet in latest Skyfall trailers
THE title is still confusing but at least we now have a plot for Skyfall.
In between the shots of Bond running, jumping, swaggering, kissing and adjusting his cufflinks, the latest full length trailers offer up the following plot points:
- MI6 screws up and loses a drive that unbelievably contains the identity of every agent embedded in terrorist organisations around the world.
- The screw-up somehow involves YouTube and M's past sins.
- James Bond dies, shot on M's orders by an agent played by Naomie Harris.
- James Bond comes back from the dead after a tequila bender in a seedy bar.
- Javier Bardem is blonde, evil and p***ed off.
- Ralph Fiennes is a balding government spook, and let's face it, knowing his track record, is also a bad guy.
- "Mommy was very bad" is best said in a thick Spanish accent.
The trailer also gives us the first look at the new Q, played by the geeky-looking Brit actor Ben Whishaw. He gives Bond a gun only he can fire, which is likely to be important at some point in the film, probably when the villain is looking to off Bond.
Skyfall is released in November.
A variation on the trailer above offers fans more.
In between the shots of Bond running, jumping, swaggering, kissing and adjusting his cufflinks, the latest full length trailers offer up the following plot points:
- MI6 screws up and loses a drive that unbelievably contains the identity of every agent embedded in terrorist organisations around the world.
- The screw-up somehow involves YouTube and M's past sins.
- James Bond dies, shot on M's orders by an agent played by Naomie Harris.
- James Bond comes back from the dead after a tequila bender in a seedy bar.
- Javier Bardem is blonde, evil and p***ed off.
- Ralph Fiennes is a balding government spook, and let's face it, knowing his track record, is also a bad guy.
- "Mommy was very bad" is best said in a thick Spanish accent.
The trailer also gives us the first look at the new Q, played by the geeky-looking Brit actor Ben Whishaw. He gives Bond a gun only he can fire, which is likely to be important at some point in the film, probably when the villain is looking to off Bond.
Skyfall is released in November.
A variation on the trailer above offers fans more.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Libyan election hints at blow to Islamists
Libya's first nationwide elections in nearly five decades brought hints Sunday of an Arab Spring precedent: Western-leaning parties making strides over Islamist rivals hoping to follow the same paths to power as in neighbors Egypt and Tunisia.
While final results from Saturday's parliamentary election could still be days away under a two-tier selection system, unofficial and partial counts from Libya's biggest cities suggested liberal factions were leading the Muslim Brotherhood and allies in a possible first major setback to their political surge following last year's uprisings.
If the Libyan trend holds — which is still far from certain — it would challenge the narrative of rising Islamist power since the fall of Western-allied regimes from Tunis to Cairo. It also could display the different political dynamics in Libya, where tribal loyalties run deep and groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood at times cooperated with the rule of Moammar Gadhafi.
"Anyone with past ties with old regime is hated, even despised," said Fathi al-Fadhali, a pro-Islamist Libyan political analyst who lived in exile for 30 years. "Any political names associated with the regime are immediately politically burnt by that association."
Ultimately, the 200-seat parliament will face the task of forming a government — which could become tests of strength for Islamists and secular forces over questions such as women's rights, the extent of traditional Islamic law and relations with the U.S. and other Western nations that helped bring down Gadhafi.
U.S. President Barack Obama congratulated Libyans on the vote, calling it "another milestone on their extraordinary transition to democracy." U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon praised the people of Libya and the candidates who "contested the election in a peaceful, democratic spirit," according to his spokesman.
Now, the ballots have to be portioned out according to two categories: Eighty seats are set aside for party lists, and the remaining 120 for individual independent candidates.
In the first group, a liberal alliance led the former rebel prime minister Mahmoud Jibril appeared to hold more than half the seats in the capital Tripoli and the revolution stronghold of Benghazi, according to several party representatives. They spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief media.
In western Libya, where Jibril's tribe, the Warfalla, is prominent, his party also was on the top in the early counting, the political officials said. In Libya's third-largest city, Misrata — which was besieged by Gadhafi forces for weeks — an upstart faction of local politicians appeared to hold the lead in another possible blow to Islamists.
Faisal Krekshi, secretary general of Jibril's Alliance of National Forces, said the results were based on reports by party representatives at ballot counting centers across the vast desert nation of 6 million people. Even officials from rival Islamist parties — the Muslim Brotherhood's Justice and Construction Party and the Islamist Al-Watan — described Jibril's alliance as the biggest winner in the race for the 80 party seats.
But even if true, that is still a long way from victory.
The bulk of the parliament — 120 seats — will be decided by the results from the head-to-head races among thousands of candidates, making it nearly impossible to predict.
Shortly before the voting, Libya's Grand Mufti issued a religious edict prohibiting Libyans from voting for secularists. Meanwhile, independent candidates are seen as possible wildcards and could punish both the Muslim Brotherhood and Jibril's factions for having former ties to the Gadhafi regime.
"We are all waiting and we have nothing to suggest that one party is ahead of others," election commission chief Nouri al-Abar told reporters. He also refused to set a date for announcing complete results. Some observers believe it could take nearly a week.
Speaking to reporters, Jibril vowed to "commit ourselves to what the commission will announce officially" and urged for all political factions to work toward "national consensus."
Unlike Egypt — where the Muslim Brotherhood was seen as an alternative to Hosni Mubarak's authoritarian rule — its brethren in Libya must confront a reputation as compromisers with Gadhafi. A former rebel commander, Fadllah Haroun, called it "their black past."
Gadhafi's powerful son, Seif al-Islam, forged deals with the Muslim Brotherhood and allies in efforts to pave the way for his eventual rule. He released more than 150 Islamist political prisoners starting in 2003 and offered others positions in his various media outlets and foundations.
Because of such ties, the Muslim Brotherhood boycotted the first Libyan opposition conference in London in 2005 that called for overthrowing Gadhafi's regime at a time Libya was mending its relations with the West.
Abdel-Latif Karmous, deputy leader of the Libyan Brotherhood who was among the prisoners released by Gadhafi's son, acknowledged that the group faces perceptions as regime allies. "We didn't immerse ourselves in the regime ... We only kept channels open to achieve political mobilization," said Karmous, a professor at Tripoli University.
Since Gadhafi's fall, the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya also has faced questions about its close ties to the wealthy Gulf state of Qatar, which funneled weapons and funds to the anti-Gadhafi forces. Some critics accuse Qatar's rulers of trying to exert influence through Libya's Brotherhood as a bridge between Egypt and Tunisia.
In December, influential Egyptian cleric Youssef al-Qaradawi, who is based in Qatar, flew to Libya aboard a Qatari royal jet and was given a feast by a senior Brotherhood leader, Bashir al-Kebti.
Later, al-Qaradawi and Tunisian Brotherhood leader Rashid al-Ghannoushi traveled to Tripoli to attend a National Reconciliation conference. But members of the rebel-led National Transition Council withdrew in protest "because they only saw it as a promotion and propaganda for the Brotherhood," said Fathi Baja, head of political committee in the NTC.
"Qatar for the Brotherhood is like a shrine," he added. "Twenty-four hour visits, around the clock, members coming and going to Qatar."
Libya also is awash with rival Islamist groups, including the ultraconservative Salafis and jihadists inspired by al-Qaida, which could bring future power plays regardless of the election results.
Fathi Bin Essa, a prominent political analyst, described the elections as only a "rehearsal" to show "who has the real power in the street."
The run-up to the voting, too, showed the political complexities of trying to accommodate all sides in Libya.
Jibril's liberal alliance of about 40 groups emphasized the need for a "civil democratic" state, but said that Islamic Sharia law should guide legislation. Jibril also made a point to appear with Muslim clerics in campaign photos even though he is prohibited from running under rules barring NTC members from the ballot.
But a religious edict by Libya's Grand Mufti, Sheik Sadek al-Ghariani, accused the liberal factions of using Islam to try to court conservative Libyans.
"I advise you to choose the one who will rule by God's religion and God's Sharia," according to an audio clip posted by Libyan activists.
Independent candidate and Benghazi city council member Faraj Negm said "the Libyan street doesn't accept anyone to blackmail them."
"We are one Muslim nation that doesn't pretend to be politically savvy," Nagm said, "but we learn and we don't want anyone to dictate things on us."
While final results from Saturday's parliamentary election could still be days away under a two-tier selection system, unofficial and partial counts from Libya's biggest cities suggested liberal factions were leading the Muslim Brotherhood and allies in a possible first major setback to their political surge following last year's uprisings.
If the Libyan trend holds — which is still far from certain — it would challenge the narrative of rising Islamist power since the fall of Western-allied regimes from Tunis to Cairo. It also could display the different political dynamics in Libya, where tribal loyalties run deep and groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood at times cooperated with the rule of Moammar Gadhafi.
"Anyone with past ties with old regime is hated, even despised," said Fathi al-Fadhali, a pro-Islamist Libyan political analyst who lived in exile for 30 years. "Any political names associated with the regime are immediately politically burnt by that association."
Ultimately, the 200-seat parliament will face the task of forming a government — which could become tests of strength for Islamists and secular forces over questions such as women's rights, the extent of traditional Islamic law and relations with the U.S. and other Western nations that helped bring down Gadhafi.
U.S. President Barack Obama congratulated Libyans on the vote, calling it "another milestone on their extraordinary transition to democracy." U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon praised the people of Libya and the candidates who "contested the election in a peaceful, democratic spirit," according to his spokesman.
Now, the ballots have to be portioned out according to two categories: Eighty seats are set aside for party lists, and the remaining 120 for individual independent candidates.
In the first group, a liberal alliance led the former rebel prime minister Mahmoud Jibril appeared to hold more than half the seats in the capital Tripoli and the revolution stronghold of Benghazi, according to several party representatives. They spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief media.
In western Libya, where Jibril's tribe, the Warfalla, is prominent, his party also was on the top in the early counting, the political officials said. In Libya's third-largest city, Misrata — which was besieged by Gadhafi forces for weeks — an upstart faction of local politicians appeared to hold the lead in another possible blow to Islamists.
Faisal Krekshi, secretary general of Jibril's Alliance of National Forces, said the results were based on reports by party representatives at ballot counting centers across the vast desert nation of 6 million people. Even officials from rival Islamist parties — the Muslim Brotherhood's Justice and Construction Party and the Islamist Al-Watan — described Jibril's alliance as the biggest winner in the race for the 80 party seats.
But even if true, that is still a long way from victory.
The bulk of the parliament — 120 seats — will be decided by the results from the head-to-head races among thousands of candidates, making it nearly impossible to predict.
Shortly before the voting, Libya's Grand Mufti issued a religious edict prohibiting Libyans from voting for secularists. Meanwhile, independent candidates are seen as possible wildcards and could punish both the Muslim Brotherhood and Jibril's factions for having former ties to the Gadhafi regime.
"We are all waiting and we have nothing to suggest that one party is ahead of others," election commission chief Nouri al-Abar told reporters. He also refused to set a date for announcing complete results. Some observers believe it could take nearly a week.
Speaking to reporters, Jibril vowed to "commit ourselves to what the commission will announce officially" and urged for all political factions to work toward "national consensus."
Unlike Egypt — where the Muslim Brotherhood was seen as an alternative to Hosni Mubarak's authoritarian rule — its brethren in Libya must confront a reputation as compromisers with Gadhafi. A former rebel commander, Fadllah Haroun, called it "their black past."
Gadhafi's powerful son, Seif al-Islam, forged deals with the Muslim Brotherhood and allies in efforts to pave the way for his eventual rule. He released more than 150 Islamist political prisoners starting in 2003 and offered others positions in his various media outlets and foundations.
Because of such ties, the Muslim Brotherhood boycotted the first Libyan opposition conference in London in 2005 that called for overthrowing Gadhafi's regime at a time Libya was mending its relations with the West.
Abdel-Latif Karmous, deputy leader of the Libyan Brotherhood who was among the prisoners released by Gadhafi's son, acknowledged that the group faces perceptions as regime allies. "We didn't immerse ourselves in the regime ... We only kept channels open to achieve political mobilization," said Karmous, a professor at Tripoli University.
Since Gadhafi's fall, the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya also has faced questions about its close ties to the wealthy Gulf state of Qatar, which funneled weapons and funds to the anti-Gadhafi forces. Some critics accuse Qatar's rulers of trying to exert influence through Libya's Brotherhood as a bridge between Egypt and Tunisia.
In December, influential Egyptian cleric Youssef al-Qaradawi, who is based in Qatar, flew to Libya aboard a Qatari royal jet and was given a feast by a senior Brotherhood leader, Bashir al-Kebti.
Later, al-Qaradawi and Tunisian Brotherhood leader Rashid al-Ghannoushi traveled to Tripoli to attend a National Reconciliation conference. But members of the rebel-led National Transition Council withdrew in protest "because they only saw it as a promotion and propaganda for the Brotherhood," said Fathi Baja, head of political committee in the NTC.
"Qatar for the Brotherhood is like a shrine," he added. "Twenty-four hour visits, around the clock, members coming and going to Qatar."
Libya also is awash with rival Islamist groups, including the ultraconservative Salafis and jihadists inspired by al-Qaida, which could bring future power plays regardless of the election results.
Fathi Bin Essa, a prominent political analyst, described the elections as only a "rehearsal" to show "who has the real power in the street."
The run-up to the voting, too, showed the political complexities of trying to accommodate all sides in Libya.
Jibril's liberal alliance of about 40 groups emphasized the need for a "civil democratic" state, but said that Islamic Sharia law should guide legislation. Jibril also made a point to appear with Muslim clerics in campaign photos even though he is prohibited from running under rules barring NTC members from the ballot.
But a religious edict by Libya's Grand Mufti, Sheik Sadek al-Ghariani, accused the liberal factions of using Islam to try to court conservative Libyans.
"I advise you to choose the one who will rule by God's religion and God's Sharia," according to an audio clip posted by Libyan activists.
Independent candidate and Benghazi city council member Faraj Negm said "the Libyan street doesn't accept anyone to blackmail them."
"We are one Muslim nation that doesn't pretend to be politically savvy," Nagm said, "but we learn and we don't want anyone to dictate things on us."
Thursday, July 12, 2012
War crimes trial adjourned as Mladic is hospitalized
(Reuters) - Former Bosnian Serb general Ratko Mladic is expected to stay in hospital for a second day of tests after being taken ill during his war crimes trial on Thursday, his lawyer said.
Mladic, 70, is accused of genocide over the siege of the Bosnian capital Sarajevo and the 1995 killing of 8,000 Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica, Europe's worst massacre since World War Two.
He was rushed to hospital on Thursday morning after he was taken ill in court. He asked the judge for a break, and then slumped with his head in his hands early on the fourth day of his war crimes trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), based in The Hague.
Already in poor health when arrested in Serbia last year after 16 years on the run, Mladic has several times said he is too ill to stand trial. He complains that he suffers from the effects of a stroke, has problems with his teeth and has been admitted to hospital with pneumonia.
Prosecutors and relatives of victims fear he could die without facing justice, as did former Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosevic, who died in a Dutch prison cell in 2006 while on trial before the ICTY.
Tribunal spokeswoman Nerma Jelacic told Reuters: "He (Mladic) complained he was feeling unwell during the hearing, so the hearing was adjourned."
Branko Lukic, Mladic's lawyer, told Reuters the trial was unlikely to continue on Friday.
"He really looked unwell," Lukic told Reuters. "It was a huge surprise for all of us because he'd been looking in pretty good shape."
Lukic said later Mladic's condition had improved, but he would stay in hospital for further tests on Friday.
"He's better than he was this morning, when he couldn't recognize people around him or move his right arm and leg," Lukic said.
A Reuters witness said Mladic asked for a break shortly after Thursday's session opened. He then put his head in his hands, and the judge called for medical staff and adjourned the hearing.
A member of Mladic's defense team had accompanied him to hospital, Lukic said.
Earlier this year, the opening of the trial had to be postponed after it emerged the prosecution had failed to disclose thousands of pages of evidence to the defense.
Mladic, 70, is accused of genocide over the siege of the Bosnian capital Sarajevo and the 1995 killing of 8,000 Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica, Europe's worst massacre since World War Two.
He was rushed to hospital on Thursday morning after he was taken ill in court. He asked the judge for a break, and then slumped with his head in his hands early on the fourth day of his war crimes trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), based in The Hague.
Already in poor health when arrested in Serbia last year after 16 years on the run, Mladic has several times said he is too ill to stand trial. He complains that he suffers from the effects of a stroke, has problems with his teeth and has been admitted to hospital with pneumonia.
Prosecutors and relatives of victims fear he could die without facing justice, as did former Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosevic, who died in a Dutch prison cell in 2006 while on trial before the ICTY.
Tribunal spokeswoman Nerma Jelacic told Reuters: "He (Mladic) complained he was feeling unwell during the hearing, so the hearing was adjourned."
Branko Lukic, Mladic's lawyer, told Reuters the trial was unlikely to continue on Friday.
"He really looked unwell," Lukic told Reuters. "It was a huge surprise for all of us because he'd been looking in pretty good shape."
Lukic said later Mladic's condition had improved, but he would stay in hospital for further tests on Friday.
"He's better than he was this morning, when he couldn't recognize people around him or move his right arm and leg," Lukic said.
A Reuters witness said Mladic asked for a break shortly after Thursday's session opened. He then put his head in his hands, and the judge called for medical staff and adjourned the hearing.
A member of Mladic's defense team had accompanied him to hospital, Lukic said.
Earlier this year, the opening of the trial had to be postponed after it emerged the prosecution had failed to disclose thousands of pages of evidence to the defense.
Why zombies, robots, clowns freak us out
SAN DIEGO (CNN) — What do zombies and androids have in common? They’re almost human, but not quite. That disconnect is creepy, in a way that scientists are searching to understand.
The uncanny valley is the idea that as a robot’s appearance becomes more and more humanlike, we don’t always respond to it more positively. Rather, there’s a point on the scale between robot and human where we are repulsed. If it’s mechanical but not entirely human, a robot seems disturbing.
Why would that be? It would make sense that as human likeness increases in a robot, so would our comfort with it. But on a graph showing that relationship, there’s a “valley” where this familiarity dips down into creepiness, and then comes back up again with more human characteristics.
You may have experienced feeling this while watching animated movies that incorporate humanlike forms. It’s also the reason that you might get freaked out by clowns or by photos people with extreme plastic surgeries that don’t look quite real anymore. Our brains come to an impasse when we see something that resembles a member of our species but just doesn’t make the cut.
Some animators sidestep the issue: in the movie “Wall-E,” for example, the main character has eyes but is not very humanlike otherwise, he is clearly a robot. His friend, Eva, looks like a white shape with eyes. Both express emotions clearly but don’t try to mimic the human shape or form. And HAL from “2001: A Space Odyssey” is just a red camera eye, but it too conveys feelings.
But when you get more humanlike, things get weird. Some reviewers were put off by the characters in the film “Polar Express,” for instance.
Then there are the Na’vi in “Avatar,” who have many physical human characteristics in addition to morphed features and tails. But they are also blue, creating a sense of “otherness” that may have made them less distasteful to viewers — in other words, they were sufficiently un-human.
Ayse Saygin, professor at the University of California, San Diego, is using cutting-edge brain science to understand this strange quirk of human nature. Although the idea of the uncanny valley has been observed, there has not been much rigorous scientific experimental work on it, partly because it’s hard to get at the heart of the matter objectively.
“Even if we don’t actually define it in words, we may be able to find signals for it in the brain,” Saygin said.
Saygin and colleagues published a study last year using functional magnetic resonance imagining (fMRI), looking at what’s happening in the brain that might explain the uncanny valley phenomenon. They hypothesized that, at least in part, the effect might result from a violation of the brain’s predictions. When we anticipate one thing but see another, we get an error, and that error makes us shy away from the thing we’re viewing.
The researchers showed 20 participants some video clips of three “actors” moving in the same ways: a human, an android modeled after the human, and a stripped-down robot (the same android without its humanlike form). Although this is a small sample of people, it is typical for neuroimaging studies, which are expensive and time-intensive.
Something interesting emerged in the results: “The network that normally processes your body movements is more active when you view an android,” compared with when you look at a stripped-down robot or a human, Saygin explains.
This could be because the brain has to combine conflicting information, she said.
“Your brain’s gonna be like, ‘Hey, wait a minute, you told me this was a human, and now this area told me that this is not moving like a human. So, I have to really compute that,’ ” she said. “That’s what we think the uncanny valley might be partially caused by, and we have seen some brain activity that looks like that.”
The uncanny valley phenomenon was put forth in an article in “Energy” in 1970 by Japanese robotics expert Masahiro Mori. But before that, Ernst Jentsch wrote about “the uncanny” in a 1906 essay, and Sigmund Freud followed up 13 years later.
Yet the idea is largely based on anecdotes, and researchers such as Karl MacDorman, associate professor of human-computer interaction at Indiana University, are working on experiments to hone in on possible explanations. MacDorman briefly worked with Saygin on animations in Japan.
In his view, the uncanny valley effect has to do with a mismatch in features of a single animation or robot, with some parts appearing much more humanlike than others. For instance, when a very human-looking head is placed on an obviously mechanical body, that can be creepy. So can a human face with robotic eyes.
“When there are elements that are both human or nonhuman, this mismatch can produce eerie sensation in the brain,” MacDorman said. “It’s when different parts of the brain are coming to different conclusions at the same time.”
There are other factors that may play in, however.
The uncanny valley effect could have to do with uncertainty about whether a robotic character is truly alive or dead, and even play into our deep-seated fears of death. Alternatively, it may be part of cognitive dissonance, which happens when a person’s beliefs are not in line with their behaviors — for instance, a smoker who berates other smokers.
From an evolutionary perspective, humans have developed an aversion to sickness, and a creepy-looking almost-human might tap into our internal system that warns us against sources of disease. In relation, we evolved to choose mates who are healthy, and weird robots may set off the same warning bells that told our ancestors to stay away from unfit sexual partners.
MacDorman’s current focus is on the uncanny valley with respect to empathy: that is, is the uncanny valley phenomenon related to a person’s difficulty in identifying with particular animated or robotic characters in films? Does it relate to the impression that these characters are somehow “soulless,” and in what ways?
Saygin’s ongoing studies make use of electroencephalography, or EEG, which measures electrical activity along the scalp. While fMRI tells where in the brain activity occurs, EEG is better for looking at when — that is, when in viewing agents with different degrees of humanness do people’s brain patterns change. EEG is also much more portable and less expensive. Rather a big scanner, it involves a cap worn on a person’s head.
Researchers may be able to understand the EEG patterns associated with the uncanny valley effect, and people’s comfort with various robotic forms. Eventually, this information could be used to help robot developers or animators who don’t want their creations to scare people.
“Instead of asking somebody, ‘Do you like this robot?’ we could get that information a lot more directly, and faster perhaps, if we can develop these technologies,” she said.
The uncanny valley is the idea that as a robot’s appearance becomes more and more humanlike, we don’t always respond to it more positively. Rather, there’s a point on the scale between robot and human where we are repulsed. If it’s mechanical but not entirely human, a robot seems disturbing.
Why would that be? It would make sense that as human likeness increases in a robot, so would our comfort with it. But on a graph showing that relationship, there’s a “valley” where this familiarity dips down into creepiness, and then comes back up again with more human characteristics.
You may have experienced feeling this while watching animated movies that incorporate humanlike forms. It’s also the reason that you might get freaked out by clowns or by photos people with extreme plastic surgeries that don’t look quite real anymore. Our brains come to an impasse when we see something that resembles a member of our species but just doesn’t make the cut.
Some animators sidestep the issue: in the movie “Wall-E,” for example, the main character has eyes but is not very humanlike otherwise, he is clearly a robot. His friend, Eva, looks like a white shape with eyes. Both express emotions clearly but don’t try to mimic the human shape or form. And HAL from “2001: A Space Odyssey” is just a red camera eye, but it too conveys feelings.
But when you get more humanlike, things get weird. Some reviewers were put off by the characters in the film “Polar Express,” for instance.
Then there are the Na’vi in “Avatar,” who have many physical human characteristics in addition to morphed features and tails. But they are also blue, creating a sense of “otherness” that may have made them less distasteful to viewers — in other words, they were sufficiently un-human.
Ayse Saygin, professor at the University of California, San Diego, is using cutting-edge brain science to understand this strange quirk of human nature. Although the idea of the uncanny valley has been observed, there has not been much rigorous scientific experimental work on it, partly because it’s hard to get at the heart of the matter objectively.
“Even if we don’t actually define it in words, we may be able to find signals for it in the brain,” Saygin said.
Saygin and colleagues published a study last year using functional magnetic resonance imagining (fMRI), looking at what’s happening in the brain that might explain the uncanny valley phenomenon. They hypothesized that, at least in part, the effect might result from a violation of the brain’s predictions. When we anticipate one thing but see another, we get an error, and that error makes us shy away from the thing we’re viewing.
The researchers showed 20 participants some video clips of three “actors” moving in the same ways: a human, an android modeled after the human, and a stripped-down robot (the same android without its humanlike form). Although this is a small sample of people, it is typical for neuroimaging studies, which are expensive and time-intensive.
Something interesting emerged in the results: “The network that normally processes your body movements is more active when you view an android,” compared with when you look at a stripped-down robot or a human, Saygin explains.
This could be because the brain has to combine conflicting information, she said.
“Your brain’s gonna be like, ‘Hey, wait a minute, you told me this was a human, and now this area told me that this is not moving like a human. So, I have to really compute that,’ ” she said. “That’s what we think the uncanny valley might be partially caused by, and we have seen some brain activity that looks like that.”
The uncanny valley phenomenon was put forth in an article in “Energy” in 1970 by Japanese robotics expert Masahiro Mori. But before that, Ernst Jentsch wrote about “the uncanny” in a 1906 essay, and Sigmund Freud followed up 13 years later.
Yet the idea is largely based on anecdotes, and researchers such as Karl MacDorman, associate professor of human-computer interaction at Indiana University, are working on experiments to hone in on possible explanations. MacDorman briefly worked with Saygin on animations in Japan.
In his view, the uncanny valley effect has to do with a mismatch in features of a single animation or robot, with some parts appearing much more humanlike than others. For instance, when a very human-looking head is placed on an obviously mechanical body, that can be creepy. So can a human face with robotic eyes.
“When there are elements that are both human or nonhuman, this mismatch can produce eerie sensation in the brain,” MacDorman said. “It’s when different parts of the brain are coming to different conclusions at the same time.”
There are other factors that may play in, however.
The uncanny valley effect could have to do with uncertainty about whether a robotic character is truly alive or dead, and even play into our deep-seated fears of death. Alternatively, it may be part of cognitive dissonance, which happens when a person’s beliefs are not in line with their behaviors — for instance, a smoker who berates other smokers.
From an evolutionary perspective, humans have developed an aversion to sickness, and a creepy-looking almost-human might tap into our internal system that warns us against sources of disease. In relation, we evolved to choose mates who are healthy, and weird robots may set off the same warning bells that told our ancestors to stay away from unfit sexual partners.
MacDorman’s current focus is on the uncanny valley with respect to empathy: that is, is the uncanny valley phenomenon related to a person’s difficulty in identifying with particular animated or robotic characters in films? Does it relate to the impression that these characters are somehow “soulless,” and in what ways?
Saygin’s ongoing studies make use of electroencephalography, or EEG, which measures electrical activity along the scalp. While fMRI tells where in the brain activity occurs, EEG is better for looking at when — that is, when in viewing agents with different degrees of humanness do people’s brain patterns change. EEG is also much more portable and less expensive. Rather a big scanner, it involves a cap worn on a person’s head.
Researchers may be able to understand the EEG patterns associated with the uncanny valley effect, and people’s comfort with various robotic forms. Eventually, this information could be used to help robot developers or animators who don’t want their creations to scare people.
“Instead of asking somebody, ‘Do you like this robot?’ we could get that information a lot more directly, and faster perhaps, if we can develop these technologies,” she said.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Lured by Patent Protection, OxyContin Maker Tests Pain Drug in Kids
The maker of the powerful pain drug OxyContin is beginning to test the medicine in children, hoping to secure an extra six months of protection for the drug's patent, which is set to expire in 2013.
The move is controversial, in light of problems with addiction to OxyContin, which belongs to the family of drugs called opioids that also includes morphine and heroin. But several pain specialists say the move is an important step in giving a more accurate picture of the drug's effect on children, considering that many doctors already prescribe the drug off-label for children.
OxyContin's manufacturer, Purdue Pharma, emphasized that the company is not trying to make a kid's version of the drug, nor is it hoping to seek the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's approval for pediatric use of OxyContin. The goal, said company spokesman James Heins, is to give more information on how the drug acts in the bodies of children who may need it for the overwhelming pain of conditions such as cancer, sickle cell anemia, severe burns and other trauma.
"Doctors are already prescribing it in limited cases for kids, but they don't have the benefit of any clinical studies showing how these drugs work in kids. Right now, all they have to go on is data from adult patients," Heins said.
The trials are already underway across the country, and Purdue hopes to enroll 154 children from ages 6 to 16 who would take the drug for four weeks. When the trial is complete, the company will send the results to the FDA. Whatever the outcomes of the study, Purdue will get an extra six months of patent protection for their trouble. OxyContin earned Purdue $2.8 billion in 2011.
The trial may seem to be centered in financial gain, and experts said the company is likely moved in large part by financial incentives. But Dr. Joseph Tobin, professor and chair of anesthesiology at Wake Forest University School of Medicine, said if drug companies are not given financial incentives to test drugs in pediatric populations, the studies would not get done at all.
"Children have become therapeutic orphans in the development or testing of new drugs. The expense and the risk are high, but the profit margin to be obtained is small compared with other diseases," Tobin said. "I think it's essential that this type of process goes forward so we can get better information on the safest uses of drugs in children."
In 2002, the government attempted to give drug companies incentives to test their medicines in kids with the Better Pharmaceuticals for Children Act, a law that allows an additional six months of patent protection for on-patent drugs. The patent that would be extended for Purdue would be the one covering OxyContin's formulation, which was modified in 2010 to make it harder for people to misuse and abuse the drug.
One of the drug's patents that will expire in 2013 is the one covering OxyContin's controlled release mechanism, which allows one pill to steadily dole out the medication over an extended period of time.
That mechanism is also what makes OxyContin different from other pain drugs, such as morphine and meperidine, or Demerol. It makes the drug more effective at treating pain, but it also makes it a highly attractive target for people addicted to opioids.
"The reason OxyContin has been such a social problem is that it locks up a large amount of drug in a small pill," said Dr. Elliot Krane, director of the pediatric pain management program at Lucile Packard Children's Hospital at Stanford University.
The move is controversial, in light of problems with addiction to OxyContin, which belongs to the family of drugs called opioids that also includes morphine and heroin. But several pain specialists say the move is an important step in giving a more accurate picture of the drug's effect on children, considering that many doctors already prescribe the drug off-label for children.
OxyContin's manufacturer, Purdue Pharma, emphasized that the company is not trying to make a kid's version of the drug, nor is it hoping to seek the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's approval for pediatric use of OxyContin. The goal, said company spokesman James Heins, is to give more information on how the drug acts in the bodies of children who may need it for the overwhelming pain of conditions such as cancer, sickle cell anemia, severe burns and other trauma.
"Doctors are already prescribing it in limited cases for kids, but they don't have the benefit of any clinical studies showing how these drugs work in kids. Right now, all they have to go on is data from adult patients," Heins said.
The trials are already underway across the country, and Purdue hopes to enroll 154 children from ages 6 to 16 who would take the drug for four weeks. When the trial is complete, the company will send the results to the FDA. Whatever the outcomes of the study, Purdue will get an extra six months of patent protection for their trouble. OxyContin earned Purdue $2.8 billion in 2011.
The trial may seem to be centered in financial gain, and experts said the company is likely moved in large part by financial incentives. But Dr. Joseph Tobin, professor and chair of anesthesiology at Wake Forest University School of Medicine, said if drug companies are not given financial incentives to test drugs in pediatric populations, the studies would not get done at all.
"Children have become therapeutic orphans in the development or testing of new drugs. The expense and the risk are high, but the profit margin to be obtained is small compared with other diseases," Tobin said. "I think it's essential that this type of process goes forward so we can get better information on the safest uses of drugs in children."
In 2002, the government attempted to give drug companies incentives to test their medicines in kids with the Better Pharmaceuticals for Children Act, a law that allows an additional six months of patent protection for on-patent drugs. The patent that would be extended for Purdue would be the one covering OxyContin's formulation, which was modified in 2010 to make it harder for people to misuse and abuse the drug.
One of the drug's patents that will expire in 2013 is the one covering OxyContin's controlled release mechanism, which allows one pill to steadily dole out the medication over an extended period of time.
That mechanism is also what makes OxyContin different from other pain drugs, such as morphine and meperidine, or Demerol. It makes the drug more effective at treating pain, but it also makes it a highly attractive target for people addicted to opioids.
"The reason OxyContin has been such a social problem is that it locks up a large amount of drug in a small pill," said Dr. Elliot Krane, director of the pediatric pain management program at Lucile Packard Children's Hospital at Stanford University.
Obama Plan to Extend Bush Tax Cuts for Middle Class Is Dead on Arrival
Everyone knows the president’s middle-income tax proposal will never make it through the
House—and that’s just fine with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Patricia Murphy on
why now is the perfect time for the tax debate.
Two hours before President Obama stood in the East Room of the White House to call for an
extension of the Bush tax cuts for middle-income Americans, House Speaker John Boehner
fired off a statement panning the idea and declaring Obama “asleep at the switch” of the
American economy.
Boehner’s prebuttal confirmed what everybody in Washington, including the president,
already knew—that Obama’s pitch for half a loaf of Bush tax-cut extensions is going
absolutely nowhere on Capitol Hill as long as the GOP runs the House. Indeed, that was the
point of the whole exercise on both sides of the aisle: to remind voters of what is at
stake in the November elections.
For Americans watching from outside the Beltway, proposing an idea that everyone knows is
doomed might seem like a colossal waste of time at best and an example of Washington
gridlock run amok at worst. But for Democrats and Republicans in the nation’s capital, the
president’s go-nowhere proposal is just the opposite—a chance to have exactly the right
debate at exactly the right time.
The tax debate “is more important now than before because voters are starting to pay
attention,” says Ron Bonjean, a Washington consultant and former adviser for the
Republican House and Senate leadership.
Bonjean said upcoming votes on the Bush tax cuts can and likely will be used against
Democrats in campaign commercials and on the trail leading up to the November elections.
Republican candidates, he said, have nothing to lose if they frame their no-new-taxes
position as fighting for small businesses that could get hit by the higher tax rates under
Obama’s proposal.
“Republicans are so clearly on the wrong side of every single poll. They are so
transparently only interested in tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.”
“There is no downside to them to support extending the tax cuts,” Bonjean said.
Democrats, on the other hand, could have a tougher hand to play: “Saying, ‘The economy is
bad, so let’s raise taxes’ in the last few months of the campaign, that’s not a message
that’s going to work.”
Not surprisingly, Democrats in the White House and on Capitol Hill see the tax battle very
differently. But they are just as eager as Republicans to have the fight in front of
voters.
“Republicans have failed to put forward a plan to create jobs or end the outsourcing of
American jobs and continue to waste valuable time on bills to nowhere,” Democratic leader
Nancy Pelosi said in a statement. “We must work together to extend tax cuts for the middle
class, put people to work, and grow our economy.”
A Democratic leadership aide put it more bluntly: “This is an easy debate for us.
Republicans are so clearly on the wrong side of every single poll. They are so
transparently only interested in tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.”
A number of polls, including Gallup’s most recent survey on the tax issue, supports
Democrats’ confidence in pushing their position to extend the tax cuts only up to
$250,000. In the Gallup poll, 62 percent of respondents said upper-income Americans are
“not paying their fair share,” while just 25 percent said the top earners are “taxed
about right.”
Gallup editors noted that that Republicans’ efforts to extend the tax cuts for all
Americans could be especially dangerous if they are seen fighting for wealthy Americans at
the expense of the middle class, a risk that GOP aides say they are well aware of. They say
privately that that distinction is the driving force behind their message that Republicans
are fighting for small businesses that would get hit under the Obama proposal, not for the
billionaires in the same position.
In his remarks Monday, Obama said he will sign a tax-cut bill as soon as Congress sends it
to him. But House and Senate leaders have no plans to negotiate a real agreement before
Election Day on Nov. 6. Instead, both parties will vote on separate proposals that the
other side says it will quickly reject.
Republican aides told The Daily Beast that the House will vote in a one-year extension of
all of the Bush tax cuts before the end of the month, along with instructions for Congress
to reform the entire tax code. Democratic Senate aides say the Senate also will vote to
extend the Bush tax cuts before August, but will only consider the president’s proposal to
extend the cuts for incomes of $250,000 and below.
In the meantime, all of the Bush tax cuts, for all Americans, are scheduled to expire on
Jan. 1, 2013, along with the temporary 2-point cut to the payroll tax, which will expire on
the same day. Combined, the tax increases would be a multitrillion-dollar hit to Americans
’ incomes, but at the moment, no one in Washington is talking about that.
House—and that’s just fine with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Patricia Murphy on
why now is the perfect time for the tax debate.
Two hours before President Obama stood in the East Room of the White House to call for an
extension of the Bush tax cuts for middle-income Americans, House Speaker John Boehner
fired off a statement panning the idea and declaring Obama “asleep at the switch” of the
American economy.
Boehner’s prebuttal confirmed what everybody in Washington, including the president,
already knew—that Obama’s pitch for half a loaf of Bush tax-cut extensions is going
absolutely nowhere on Capitol Hill as long as the GOP runs the House. Indeed, that was the
point of the whole exercise on both sides of the aisle: to remind voters of what is at
stake in the November elections.
For Americans watching from outside the Beltway, proposing an idea that everyone knows is
doomed might seem like a colossal waste of time at best and an example of Washington
gridlock run amok at worst. But for Democrats and Republicans in the nation’s capital, the
president’s go-nowhere proposal is just the opposite—a chance to have exactly the right
debate at exactly the right time.
The tax debate “is more important now than before because voters are starting to pay
attention,” says Ron Bonjean, a Washington consultant and former adviser for the
Republican House and Senate leadership.
Bonjean said upcoming votes on the Bush tax cuts can and likely will be used against
Democrats in campaign commercials and on the trail leading up to the November elections.
Republican candidates, he said, have nothing to lose if they frame their no-new-taxes
position as fighting for small businesses that could get hit by the higher tax rates under
Obama’s proposal.
“Republicans are so clearly on the wrong side of every single poll. They are so
transparently only interested in tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.”
“There is no downside to them to support extending the tax cuts,” Bonjean said.
Democrats, on the other hand, could have a tougher hand to play: “Saying, ‘The economy is
bad, so let’s raise taxes’ in the last few months of the campaign, that’s not a message
that’s going to work.”
Not surprisingly, Democrats in the White House and on Capitol Hill see the tax battle very
differently. But they are just as eager as Republicans to have the fight in front of
voters.
“Republicans have failed to put forward a plan to create jobs or end the outsourcing of
American jobs and continue to waste valuable time on bills to nowhere,” Democratic leader
Nancy Pelosi said in a statement. “We must work together to extend tax cuts for the middle
class, put people to work, and grow our economy.”
A Democratic leadership aide put it more bluntly: “This is an easy debate for us.
Republicans are so clearly on the wrong side of every single poll. They are so
transparently only interested in tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.”
A number of polls, including Gallup’s most recent survey on the tax issue, supports
Democrats’ confidence in pushing their position to extend the tax cuts only up to
$250,000. In the Gallup poll, 62 percent of respondents said upper-income Americans are
“not paying their fair share,” while just 25 percent said the top earners are “taxed
about right.”
Gallup editors noted that that Republicans’ efforts to extend the tax cuts for all
Americans could be especially dangerous if they are seen fighting for wealthy Americans at
the expense of the middle class, a risk that GOP aides say they are well aware of. They say
privately that that distinction is the driving force behind their message that Republicans
are fighting for small businesses that would get hit under the Obama proposal, not for the
billionaires in the same position.
In his remarks Monday, Obama said he will sign a tax-cut bill as soon as Congress sends it
to him. But House and Senate leaders have no plans to negotiate a real agreement before
Election Day on Nov. 6. Instead, both parties will vote on separate proposals that the
other side says it will quickly reject.
Republican aides told The Daily Beast that the House will vote in a one-year extension of
all of the Bush tax cuts before the end of the month, along with instructions for Congress
to reform the entire tax code. Democratic Senate aides say the Senate also will vote to
extend the Bush tax cuts before August, but will only consider the president’s proposal to
extend the cuts for incomes of $250,000 and below.
In the meantime, all of the Bush tax cuts, for all Americans, are scheduled to expire on
Jan. 1, 2013, along with the temporary 2-point cut to the payroll tax, which will expire on
the same day. Combined, the tax increases would be a multitrillion-dollar hit to Americans
’ incomes, but at the moment, no one in Washington is talking about that.
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